Will there be no tech under the Christmas tree this year?

Author: Marco Mezger, Executive Vice President and COO of Neumonda 

Smartphones, tablets, gaming consoles, smart home devices, laptops, and wearables regularly top consumers’ holiday wish lists. This year, however, many shoppers may be in for a surprise. Some products could become significantly more expensive, others may be difficult to obtain, and some highly anticipated devices might arrive later than expected.

The reasons are complex, but one factor stands out above all others: Memory. Or rather, it’s costs and availability.
For years, memory was treated as a commodity. It was expected to be available in virtually unlimited quantities and at continuously falling prices. Today, we learn that that assumption no longer holds true.

The ripple effect of the memory crunch

DDR4 prices have risen dramatically as suppliers shifted capacity toward DDR5 and HBM, while NAND pricing has also rebounded strongly after production cuts across the industry. When memory prices rise, device manufacturers have little choice but to absorb higher costs or pass them on to the market. In many cases, they do both. 

Apple was one of the first companies to introduce substantial price increases for its notebooks and tablets. Now it has to delay the launch of its iPhone 18 until 2027 with further price increases of 10 – 20%. Others are following suit.
In the premium segment, this might be acceptable, but what do you do when the memory prices exceed the overall bill of materials of a product? Will consumers still buy a product that is twice as expensive as a couple of months ago, or will they wait for prices to come down again? 

What consumers will experience this Christmas season is something the electronics industry has already been facing for months.

Necessity is the mother of invention – and creative new ways

Many manufacturers have responded by fundamentally changing their sourcing strategies. This extends beyond simply adding alternative suppliers. Companies are increasingly forming long-term partnerships with distributors, memory specialists, and technology providers to secure access to supply. 

In many industries, predictability has become as important as price. In an environment where shortages can delay production for months, guaranteed availability often outweighs a marginal cost advantage.

Another notable trend is the renewed interest in older memory technologies. For years, the consumer industry focused almost exclusively on the newest generations of memory. Today, many manufacturers are discovering that older technologies continue to serve their applications perfectly well. 

Ironically, this growing demand for mature memory technologies comes at the very moment when many large manufacturers are reducing investment in these products. As Neumonda has repeatedly highlighted, major suppliers are steadily withdrawing capacity from technologies such as DDR4 despite continued demand from industrial markets. Industrial systems, embedded applications, medical equipment, transportation infrastructure, and countless other products still rely on older technologies. This creates a structural supply challenge that cannot be solved overnight.

The result is a memory market that increasingly resembles a strategic resource market rather than a commodity market.

Companies that plan early, qualify alternative sources, and establish strong supply-chain partnerships will be better positioned to navigate this environment. Those that continue to rely on assumptions of unlimited availability may find themselves exposed to unexpected shortages and escalating costs.

So, will there be no technology under the Christmas tree this year?

Of course, technology will remain one of the most popular gifts of the season. But consumers may discover that the latest gadgets cost more than expected, some models are harder to find, and certain product launches arrive later than planned. It certainly won’t be the time to make a bargain tech buy.

For the electronics industry, however, the real lesson goes far beyond this Christmas. The era of taking memory availability for granted is over. Supply security, diversification, and long-term partnerships are becoming competitive advantages in their own right.

And those who adapt quickest to this new reality will be the ones best prepared for whatever comes next.

Neumonda was founded with the ambition to build the most comprehensive memory application expertise under one roof by combining memory distribution, product manufacturing and memory IP.