Gartner: Semiconductor revenue to exceed $1.3 trillion in 2026
Market research firm Gartner forecasts that global semiconductor revenue will exceed USD 1.3 trillion in 2026, representing 64% growth – the strongest growth in more than two decades – driven by continued strong demand related to AI, data centers and rising memory prices.
According to Gartner, 2026 will mark the third consecutive year of double-digit growth for the semiconductor industry, underlining the sector’s central role in the rapidly expanding AI economy.
“Amid high demand for AI processing, data center networking and power, and memory price inflation (memflation), the semiconductor industry is projected to achieve a third consecutive year of double-digit growth in 2026 – a milestone that underscores the sector’s pivotal role in the AI technology stack,” said Rajeev Rajput, Senior Principal Analyst at Gartner, in a press release.
Sharp increase in memory prices
Memory revenue is expected to triple in 2026, largely driven by memflation – sharply increasing DRAM and NAND flash prices. Gartner forecasts DRAM prices to increase by 125% in 2026, while NAND flash prices are expected to increase by 234%. Any meaningful price relief is not expected until late 2027.
The price increases are also expected to impact demand outside the AI segment.
“Memflation will destroy, or at least delay, non-AI demand into 2028, to varying degrees depending on the application,” Rajput said.
AI accounts for 30% of the market
AI semiconductors are expected to account for around 30% of total semiconductor revenue in 2026, remaining the primary growth driver of the market.
At the same time, hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure is expected to increase by more than 50% in 2026, driving demand for AI accelerators, including GPUs and custom chips.
Gartner also advises caution for suppliers and buyers in the volatile pricing environment, and recommends that companies avoid supply agreements with unfavourable pricing terms extending beyond 2027.
Broader structural changes in the semiconductor and memory markets will also be addressed at Evertiq Expo Zurich on 23 April 2026.
Nikolaos Florous from Memphis Electronic will discuss how the global memory market is shifting from a traditionally cyclical and commoditised industry toward one increasingly shaped by AI-driven demand concentration, geopolitical realignment and rising capital intensity.
In a separate session, Claus Aasholm from Semiconductor Business Intelligence will present a data-driven analysis of the semiconductor industry, focusing on capacity expansion, capital investments, supply chain shifts and real utilisation trends, aiming to challenge conventional industry narratives and highlight underlying structural changes.
