Memory and CPU price hikes could push notebook prices up by 40%

The research firm estimates that a mainstream notebook with a manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) of USD 900 could see its retail price rise by nearly 40% if current component price trends continue and vendors aim to maintain existing margin structures across the supply chain.

TrendForce reports that the supply of notebook DRAM and NAND flash has tightened since the beginning of 2026, driving rapid price increases and creating shortages for certain components. Under typical conditions, DRAM and solid-state storage account for roughly 15% of a notebook’s bill of materials (BOM). After several quarters of price increases, that share could exceed 30% in the first quarter of 2026.

In such a scenario, the firm estimates that memory price increases alone could push retail notebook prices more than 30% higher in order to preserve margins for manufacturers and distribution channels.

CPU pricing is also beginning to rise. According to TrendForce, Intel has already increased prices by more than 15% for some entry-level and older-generation notebook processors, with additional price increases planned for mainstream and mid-to-high-end platforms in the second quarter of 2026.

Because processors already represent one of the largest cost elements in notebook systems, simultaneous increases in CPU and memory prices could significantly change cost structures. TrendForce estimates that the combined share of CPUs and memory in a notebook BOM could rise from about 45% to around 58%.

The firm also notes emerging volatility in CPU supply. Demand for AI-related computing workloads is putting increasing pressure on advanced process and packaging capacity, which is increasingly prioritised for high-performance computing products. This shift has begun to constrain supply for some entry-level notebook processors.

According to TrendForce, large notebook brands with long-term supply agreements and higher purchasing volumes may be better positioned to secure stable allocations and pricing, while smaller brands could face greater cost pressure and shipment risks.

The company also reports that adoption of processors from AMD has increased as notebook manufacturers pursue multi-platform strategies. However, recent supply chain reports indicate that shortages may also be emerging for some entry-level AMD platforms.

TrendForce said that memory supply conditions and CPU pricing strategies in the coming quarters will be key factors shaping global notebook shipment trends and competitive dynamics among manufacturers.