Memory price surge threatens global smartphone production in 2026
Global smartphone production is expected to decline sharply in 2026 as rising memory prices increase retail costs and weigh on end demand, according to research from TrendForce. Total output is forecast to fall 10% year-on-year to approximately 1.135 billion units.
Under a bear-case scenario, TrendForce warns the contraction could exceed 15%, with the impact varying by brand depending on product mix and regional exposure.
Contract prices for mainstream 8GB + 256GB memory modules are projected to surge nearly 200% in 1Q26 compared with the same period last year, roughly tripling from 2025 levels. Memory, which historically accounted for 10–15% of a smartphone’s bill of materials, now represents 30–40%, forcing brands to consider higher retail prices or adjusted specifications to protect margins.
Brand-level effects are expected to differ. Samsung, with vertical integration and a leading position in memory supply, is likely to experience smaller production declines, while Apple, with a premium-focused portfolio and price-tolerant customers, may maintain more stable output.
Chinese brands dependent on entry-level models, including Xiaomi and Transsion, are more exposed to cost volatility and could face notable production cuts. vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Honor also face intensified competition from Huawei, which, supported by the HarmonyOS ecosystem and flexible pricing, is expected to see the smallest production adjustment and may even post growth.
While the current downturn is being triggered by rising memory prices, deeper structural factors are also at play, according to TrendForce. Replacement cycles are lengthening as smartphones meet most consumers’ needs, limiting incentives to upgrade. Even if memory prices stabilise, demand is unlikely to return to previous growth levels in the near term.
