DRAMpocalypse: Memory price projections skyrocket for 1Q26
The global memory market is heading toward historically sharp price increases in the first quarter of 2026, according to a new forecast from market research firm TrendForce.
Contract price projections for both DRAM and NAND Flash have been significantly revised upward, driven by a widening supply–demand imbalance fuelled by sustained AI- and data centre-related demand, TrendForce reports.
TrendForce now expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise by 90–95% quarter over quarter in 1Q26, a substantial upward revision from its previous estimate of 55–60%. NAND Flash contract prices are likewise projected to increase by 55–60% QoQ, up from an earlier forecast of 33–38%, with further upward adjustments still possible.
According to TrendForce, PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025 exceeded expectations, resulting in a broad shortage of PC DRAM. Even tier-1 PC OEMs with secured supply allocations are experiencing rapidly declining inventory levels. In a clearly seller-driven market, PC DRAM contract prices are expected to increase by more than 100% quarter over quarter in 1Q26, marking the largest quarterly price surge on record.
On the server side, major cloud service providers (CSPs) and server OEMs in North America and China continue to negotiate long-term DRAM agreements with memory suppliers, TrendForce states. Intense competition for limited supply is expected to push server DRAM prices up by around 90% QoQ during the quarter, also representing a record increase. At the same time, suppliers are required to carefully balance capacity allocations across strategic customers.
The growing DRAM shortage is also affecting memory products for the mobile market. TrendForce forecasts that contract prices for both LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X will rise by around 90% quarter over quarter in 1Q26, the steepest increases ever recorded for these product categories. Contracts with US-based smartphone brands were largely finalised in late 2025, while negotiations with Chinese vendors are expected to gain momentum toward the end of February, following the completion of 4Q25 contracts and the Lunar New Year holiday.
The NAND Flash market continues to face capacity constraints. Despite order volumes in 1Q26 significantly exceeding available production capacity, memory manufacturers are prioritising DRAM, which is considered more profitable. As a result, portions of NAND Flash production capacity are being reallocated to DRAM, further limiting the near-term expansion of NAND supply.
| 4Q25 | 1Q26 reviderad uppskattning | |
| PC DRAM | DDR4 & DDR5 blended: up 38~43% | DDR4 & DDR5 blended: up 105~110% |
| Server DRAM | DDR4 & DDR5 blended: up 53~58% | DDR4 & DDR5 blended: up 88~93% |
| Mobile DRAM | LPDDR4X: up 48~53% LPDDR5X: up 43~48% | LPDDR4X: up 88~93% LPDDR5X: up 88~93% |
| Total DRAM | Conventional DRAM: up 45~50% HBM Blended: up 50~55% | Conventional DRAM: up 90~95% HBM Blended: up 80~85% |
| Enterprise SSD | up 25~30% | up 53~58% |
| Total NAND Flash | up 33~38% | up 55~60% |
