MLC NAND flash capacity set to fall sharply as major suppliers exit market
Global production capacity for MLC NAND flash is expected to decline by 41.7% year-on-year in 2026 as leading memory manufacturers continue to scale back or discontinue output, according to new research from TrendForce.
The contraction is primarily driven by Samsung’s decision to exit the MLC NAND segment. The company, previously the world’s largest supplier of MLC NAND flash, announced in March 2025 that its products would reach end of life, with final shipments scheduled for June 2026. Other major suppliers, including Kioxia, SK hynix, and Micron, have limited production mainly to fulfilling existing customer commitments, with little incentive to expand capacity.
TrendForce notes that the rapid reduction in supply, combined with the absence of replacement capacity that can be quickly ramped up, led to strong pull-in demand beginning in late first quarter 2025. Early volume commitments contributed to a sharp increase in prices, which have continued to trend upward.
Demand for MLC NAND flash remains relatively stable, according to the research firm, supported by applications in industrial control systems, automotive electronics, medical devices, and networking equipment. These segments typically require high reliability, strong write endurance, and long-term supply guarantees. However, TrendForce cautions that long-term growth potential for these applications is limited.
The report also highlights potential downside risks. Wider adoption of enhanced TLC-based solutions in certain use cases, or a broader cyclical downturn in the NAND flash market, could place indirect downward pressure on MLC NAND pricing.
As supply gaps widen, TrendForce identifies Taiwan-based Macronix as a beneficiary of the market shift. The company, which focuses on embedded and high-reliability memory products, has reduced part of its NOR flash capacity to increase MLC NAND output.