DRAM and NAND Flash prices to surge in Q1 2026

The market research firm forecasts that conventional DRAM contract prices will increase by 55–60% quarter-on-quarter, while NAND Flash prices are expected to rise by 33–38% QoQ. The increases are driven by a widening supply-demand gap, particularly in server-related segments, as cloud service providers (CSPs) secure capacity and suppliers maintain disciplined output strategies.

TrendForce states that DRAM manufacturers are reallocating advanced process nodes and new capacity toward server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to support growing AI server demand. This shift has significantly constrained supply to other applications, pushing up prices across the DRAM market.

Server DRAM prices are projected to rise by more than 60% QoQ in Q1 2026. US-based CSPs have been pulling in orders since late 2025, securing a larger share of bit supply growth. With supplier inventories nearing depletion and shipment growth dependent mainly on wafer output increases, supply tightness is expected to persist.

Despite weaker notebook shipments and slower overall PC memory demand, PC DRAM prices are also set to increase sharply. TrendForce notes that suppliers have tightened supply to PC OEMs and module makers, forcing some OEMs to procure memory at higher prices via module channels, thereby pushing prices upward.

In the mobile segment, seasonal softness in smartphone demand has not eased supply constraints. TrendForce expects LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X markets to remain undersupplied, supporting further price increases in the coming quarters.

Graphics DRAM demand has weakened following downward revisions to Nvidia RTX 6000-series sales targets and shipment reductions by some PC OEMs. However, pricing continues to rise due to constrained supply linked to DDR5 production capacity, which uses similar process technologies.

On the NAND Flash side, TrendForce reports that demand is becoming increasingly polarised between consumer and AI-driven applications. Enterprise SSDs are expected to become the largest NAND Flash application segment in 2026, supported by accelerating AI infrastructure investments from North American CSPs.

Client SSD demand is forecast to decline in Q1 2026 due to lower notebook shipments and specification downgrades in entry- and mid-range models. Nevertheless, contract prices for client SSDs are expected to rise by more than 40% QoQ, the steepest increase among NAND Flash products, as suppliers shift capacity toward higher-margin data centre SSDs and high-capacity QLC supply remains limited.

For NAND Flash wafers, weak consumer demand combined with aggressive price hikes in late 2025 is expected to suppress purchasing activity in Q1 2026. At the same time, suppliers’ focus on high-margin products continues to limit wafer availability for module makers, sustaining upward price pressure.