The component lifecycle is collapsing under its own progress

It’s not that the electronics industry doesn’t know obsolescence is a threat. It’s that, increasingly, it acts like it doesn’t care. Despite mounting warnings, the accelerated pace of innovation, once celebrated as progress, has become a liability. Lifespans for advanced semiconductors have collapsed from decades to just a few years, and instant obsolescence is replacing orderly end-of-life planning. Yet too many companies continue to rely on outdated assumptions and reactive strategies. The crisis isn’t just about disappearing components; it’s about the complacency that ensures the problem will keep getting worse.

If there's one thing experts in obsolescence management agree on, it’s this: the problem isn’t surprise – it’s denial. Companies know it’s coming. They just don’t know how to deal with it. Or worse – they pretend they don’t need to. Like ostriches, they bury their heads in the sand, hoping the threat will pass them by. Spoiler, it doesn’t. And when it knocks on the door, the price is paid in crisis-mode redesigns, sky-high spot buys, lost production time – or a failure to return to the market.

The scale of the issue is hard to ignore. According to data from Datalynq, more than 328,000 end-of-life (EOL) notices were issued in 2023 alone. That’s an average of 15 EOL notices and 30 part change notifications (PCNs) every single day. Approximately 35% of all obsolete components enter instant obsolescence, cutting short the ability of many manufacturers to plan or stockpile. Perhaps most alarming is the broader trend: the lifespan of semiconductors has plummeted more than 60%, from around 30 years to just 10, or even less in advanced components. In this environment, obsolescence isn’t a maybe – it’s a countdown. 

And it doesn’t stop at availability. Ignoring obsolescence doesn’t just disrupt production – it opens the door to counterfeit risk. According to ERAI, nearly 43% of all counterfeit parts trace back to components already declared obsolete.

This is linked to the electronics industry’s cultural mindset—lean, efficiency-obsessed, and reactive. Part of the reason as to why obsolescence keeps catching companies off guard is the industry’s long-standing relationship to just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing.

What once seemed like a gold standard for lean efficiency now looks increasingly brittle in the face of sudden disruptions. JIT works when the world is stable – when forecasts are accurate, suppliers are predictable, and demand is steady. But obsolescence doesn’t operate on a schedule, and it doesn’t care about warehouse optimisation. When a key component vanishes overnight and there's no buffer stock, JIT offers no lifeline. It’s an elegant system, until it collapses. But in a market defined by volatility and shrinking component lifecycles, that collapse is happening more often than companies want to admit.

Obsolescence is no longer a distant risk – it’s a daily reality. The industry's addiction to short-term efficiency, its overreliance on “Just-in-Time” strategies, and its cultural resistance to proactive planning have created a perfect storm. And yet, we keep acting surprised. The solution isn’t just better forecasting or smarter procurement – it’s a shift in mindset. Obsolescence needs to be treated as a design constraint, a boardroom conversation, and a shared responsibility across the supply chain. Because the parts will disappear. 

So how do companies break the cycle of denial and crisis-mode reactions? Based on conversations with obsolescence experts across the industry, here are four principles that can make the difference between firefighting and foresight:

1. Acknowledge and anticipate obsolescence
   Accept that component end-of-life will happen, even if the timing is uncertain.
   Build awareness early in the design stage, especially around the semiconductor “four-year wave.”
2. Design for flexibility
   Use modular designs and alternative pad layouts for critical components.
   Ensure software portability to support future hardware changes.
3. Implement structured processes
   Establish routines to regularly review obsolescence risks.
   Combine data-driven tools with human judgment to avoid costly mistakes.
4. Strengthen knowledge and collaboration
   Build internal expertise on obsolescence risks.
   Maintain open communication with partners and suppliers to plan ahead effectively.

As the industry continues to grapple with accelerating obsolescence, these challenges will be addressed on stage at Evertiq Expo Gothenburg on September 5, 2025 and during Evertiq Expo Warsaw on October 23, 2025. Ronny Nietzsche from Rochester Electronics will present “Obsolescence Management starts at Design”, highlighting strategies that can be applied already in the design phase to mitigate future EOL risks.