The next two years won't offer shortcuts – A memory market reality check
Following his presentation at Evertiq Expo Zürich, Memphis Electronics' Nikolaos Florous had a conversation with Evertiq to go deeper on the market outlook. The short version: conditions will stay difficult, and procurement teams that haven't adapted yet are running out of time.
The memory market is not going through a rough patch. It has changed structurally, and the industry has yet to fully absorb what that means in practice. That was the message from Nikolaos Florous, Semiconductor & Electronics Expert and Global Product Marketing Director at Memphis Electronic, both on stage at Evertiq Expo Zürich and off it.
"We are looking at a memory market that has changed rules recently," Florous said. "Driven by AI economics, which sets a new standard in terms of supply, investment, capacity output. Nothing comes easy these days."
His expectation is that tight conditions — across legacy and advanced nodes alike — will persist for at least another two years.
Why 2027, and not sooner?
The investment math is straightforward: meaningful capacity additions trace back to capex decisions made around 2021 and 2022. A new fab line takes a minimum of five years to reach full deployment. That puts any real relief no earlier than the end of 2027.
"These are the investments that need minimum five years to be fully deployed," Florous said. "We are looking at meaningful capex to be added by end of 2027."
A market splitting in two
Part of what makes the current situation complex is that it is not uniform. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are increasingly concentrating output on products with higher margins – DDR5, HBM, LPDDR5-based SOCOMs, DDR5X. Legacy platforms are being left to a different group of suppliers.
"We see a kind of bifurcation," Florous said. Taiwanese manufacturers such as Nanya, Winbond, and Intelligent Memory are maintaining DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4 lines where the majors have pulled back. But neither side of this split comes without risk. Advanced node customers face capacity constraints and pricing pressure. Legacy customers face shrinking supplier bases and uncertain longevity.
"There is no simple short-term relief. You have to think strategically about how you position yourself to secure long-term support."
Who will feel it most?
Not every segment will be hit equally. But procurement teams still running on spot-market strategies or informal demand forecasting are the most exposed.
"For certain suppliers that were basing their procurement strategies purely on guessing or on spot trading – they will be the first to face the hard conditions in the new circumstances."
What procurement teams should actually do
Florous' recommendations were concrete. Qualify a minimum of three to four suppliers. Rethink engineering design to reduce dependency on single memory types. Decide which platforms are priorities and allocate resources accordingly. And stop double-booking.
"Double bookings will only turn the industry towards the worst scenario." The advice he kept returning to was simple: stay disciplined, and spread your bets. "It's like a horse race. You have to bet on multiple horses. And stay disciplined. That's the basic advice."
Florous will return to the Evertiq Expo stage at Evertiq Expo Berlin on June 18, where he will present "The Global Memory Market Reset" – offering an updated look at where the memory market stands and where it is heading.
