Trump’s rollback unlikely to slow global lithium demand
Mining industry staying calm in the face of returning President’s early rollback on EVs
The return of Donald Trump to the White House may have set alarm bells ringing in some parts of the EV global market, but the mining industry should remain relatively unfazed, according to Reuters’ analysis of the implications following the President’s return.
President Donald Trump’s recent rollback of electric vehicle (EV) targets may temporarily slow demand for lithium and other critical minerals, but analysts and industry leaders believe it will not significantly impact the mining industry amid surging global EV demand.
On Tuesday, Trump revoked predecessor Joe Biden’s 2021 executive order, which aimed to ensure that half of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030 are electric. Automakers had been preparing for increased EV demand due to Biden’s directive. Trump’s order caused shares of Japanese automakers, South Korean battery makers, and Australian, U.S., and Chinese lithium miners to slip. However, analysts expect global EV demand to compensate for any slowdown in the U.S. market.
Trump has also planned other regulatory changes to cut support for EVs and charging stations and strengthen measures blocking imports of automobiles and battery materials from China. "Every time people take away subsidies or benefits ... it’s a dent to the demand scenario, but ultimately demand will still grow even if the U.S. is a bit slower under Trump,” said Glyn Lawcock, an analyst at Australian investment bank Barrenjoey.
Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources emphasized that the global transition to EVs is underway, with or without the U.S.
“Longer term, I just don’t think it will be an issue on demand,” said Antonino Ottaviano, Liontown’s CEO.
China accounts for 65% of the global EV market, with North America representing only 10%. The rest of the world, growing at 27% year on year, is expected to become more significant than the entire North American market within two years.
Grid-scale batteries and critical metals used in consumer electronics and AI industry servers are also driving demand. Jakob Stausholm, CEO of Rio Tinto, expressed optimism about lithium demand, predicting it will increase fivefold over the next 15 years.
David Klanecky, CEO of battery recycler Cirba Solutions was equally upbeat. He said he expects U.S. demand for critical minerals to jump by 2030 due to the growing need for EVs and electronics. Miners believe measures to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies will support their metals, despite the rollback of formal EV sales targets.
