Notebook market demand to grow by 3.6% in 2024
TrendForce says that the global notebook market in 2023 struggled due to high inflation, with annual shipments reaching only 166 million units, a 10.8% YoY decrease. However, this decline was less severe compared to 2022.
While notebook manufacturers work through existing inventory backlogs in 1H24 and benefit from the expected easing of inflationary pressures, the US market is hopeful for potential interest rate cuts. Such financial adjustments could significantly reduce corporate borrowing costs and improve liquidity. Additionally, the impending upgrades in Microsoft’s operating systems are anticipated to encourage enterprise users to upgrade their systems for enhanced security, potentially boosting the demand for new notebooks. Consequently, TrendForce projects a steady quarterly improvement in the notebook market for 2024, expecting a modest annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%, with shipments reaching 172 million units.
A key highlight at CES 2024 was the focus on AI PCs, which captured significant attention. Leading chipmakers, Intel and AMD, have taken the initiative, collaborating with laptop brands to introduce a new range of products featuring AI acceleration engines. The integration of Neural Processing Units (NPUs) indicates a shift in personal computing, moving beyond traditional reliance on CPUs and GPUs. These AI-enabled devices are designed to efficiently manage workloads and power consumption, enhanced by Microsoft Windows 11's Copilot feature, thus offering a high-performance yet energy-efficient experience for consumers.
TrendForce notes that the initial target demographic for AI PCs includes high-end business users and content creators. Given the substantial upgrades in chip performance and related components like memory, batteries, and cooling systems, a higher price point is inevitable. Despite manufacturers' focus on hardware advancements and consumers' willingness to experiment with AI PCs, the growth in market penetration of AI PCs in 2024 might remain limited in the absence of compelling AI applications. The future growth of global notebook shipments, particularly over the next two to three years, hinges critically on the innovation and development of related software applications.
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