© begemot 30 dreamstime.com Analysis | June 24, 2016
Power Transistors to see less volatility In second half of decade
Greater demand for energy efficiency in systems, cars, portable electronics, and new connections to the Internet of Things will steadily drive power transistor sales to new record-high levels in the next three years.
Power transistors—the USD 12 billion growth engine in the USD 21 billion discrete semiconductor market—have faced a choppy uphill climb since surging in the 2010 recovery from the 2008/2009 economic recession. Worldwide revenues for power transistors continue to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 4 percent, but sales in the largest discretes product category have fallen in three out of the last five years because of ongoing economic uncertainty and quick cancellation of purchase orders by systems makers whenever they see signs of demand weakening for end-use electronic products, says IC Insights. After dropping 7 percent in 2015 to USD 12.3 billion, power transistor sales are expected to stabilize and begin a modest recovery in 2016, growing by a little over 1 percent to USD 12.4 billion, according to the latest edition of IC Insights’ O-S-D Report. The report shows power transistor sales slowly regaining strength in the next few years, rising 3 percent in 2017 to USD 12.8 billion followed by 5 percent growth in 2018 to about USD 13.5 billion, which will match the current annual peak set in 2011. Between 2015 and 2020, power transistor sales are projected to grow by a CAGR of 3.9 percent to USD 14.8 billion in the final year of the 2016 O-S-D Report’s forecast. The annual growth rate in the second half of this decade essentially matches the CAGR of 4.0 percent recorded in the last 10 years (2005-2015), but IC Insights anticipates much less volatility in the power transistor market because worldwide demand will continue to climb for greater energy efficiency in data center computers, industrial systems, home appliances, battery-operated portable electronics, automobiles, and the explosion of connections to the Internet of Things (IoT). Worldwide shipments of power transistors are now forecast to rise by a CAGR of 6.5 percent, reaching 71.1 billion units in 2020 compared to about 52.0 billion in 2015. Among the power transistor product categories, sales growth is expected to be the strongest in high voltage field-effect transistors (FETs) and insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) modules during the second half of this decade. The 2016 O-S-D Report shows sales of high-voltage (over 200V) FETs growing by a CAGR of 4.7 percent to USD 2.4 billion in 2020 while IGBT modules are expected to increase by an annual rate of 4.0 percent to USD 3.2 billion in five years. Other projected 2015-2020 CAGR growth rates for power transistor product categories are: 3.7 percent for low-voltage FETs (under 200V) to USD 5.6 billion; 3.8 percent for discrete IGBT transistors to USD 1.1 billion; and 3.1 percent for bipolar junction transistors to USD 886 million in 2020.