Claus Aasholm on the ripples and tsunamis in the chip supply chain

In an engaging and at times brutally honest keynote at Evertiq Expo Malmö, Claus Aasholm, founder of Semiconductor Business Intelligence, challenged prevailing narratives of growth in the electronics industry. His central message was clear: the global semiconductor sector is undergoing a structural upheaval, not just another cyclical downturn.

Aasholm – widely followed for his data-driven, no-nonsense insights – kicked off with a reflection on his discontent with corporate narratives. “The days of the Silicon Cowboy are over,” he said. Today, when listening to investor calls, all we hear is “corporate candy floss”—happy data divorced from the reality of the situation, according to Aasholm.

His analysis is built on a meticulous review of over 400 companies across 50 segments of the semiconductor and electronics ecosystem. “I'm not forecasting,” he emphasized. Instead, he looks at the supply chain and the data behind it. “I do analysis, not forecasting.”

“A year and a half ago, I started to see what I believe is the tsunami. In my data, it became very obvious that something was changing; this is not our normal cycle. There was something that was systemic, and I started to investigate this in greater detail.”

AI: The new gravity in semiconductors

Aasholm laid out how AI – particularly driven by cloud hyperscalers and spearheaded by Nvidia – is completely reshaping the industry. “The semiconductor market is turning into the data centre market,” he said. Data centre revenue now accounts for a staggering 38% of total semiconductor revenue, up from 14% in just two years.

“This has not happened before, and this is not cyclical. This is systemic. Something is changing the industry quite dramatically.” 

Nvidia has transitioned from a component vendor to the world’s largest server company, controlling not just GPU production but entire server systems and their pricing. Its purchasing backlog exceeds USD 80 billion, and it effectively dictates terms to the entire supply chain. 

“It's massive pressure on the supply chain. It's not fun being some of these companies supplying to Blackwell. Nvidia's purchasing backlog is over 80 billion dollars. So they basically bought the supply chain. If you hear stories like, ‘oh, this company is going to compete with Nvidia’. Yeah, maybe they have the technology, but they won't have the products because Nvidia has already bought all of them.”

AI boom, but starvation elsewhere

While AI and data centres feast, other sectors starve. Aasholm called this dynamic the “death spiral” for hybrid semiconductor companies—those that combine in-house fabrication with foundry outsourcing. Many of these, particularly in Europe, are seeing their longest downturns ever, with little hope of relief. 

“So this is the reality of the hybrid companies. As you can see, they're into a 10 quarter downturn. This has not happened before. The last one was also long, it was seven quarters, but before that the normal downturn was about four to five quarters. So something is changing for these companies. And I may be telling a secret, but what are their CEOs saying? ‘We're doing great, we're taking market share, the upturn is coming soon.’ Well, maybe this time it won't, or it won't be as powerful as it was before.”

Even industrial and automotive segments are lagging, with only a narrow lifeline thrown by Chinese EV growth. “The AI companies are sucking out all of the juice of the industry,” he warned. “Companies are shutting down production lines for stuff that keeps our gas boiler going. I can tell you this will impact everybody because everybody is running after the golden goose.”

China’s quiet game

Aasholm gave a stark warning on China’s strategy: Chinese semiconductor output has surged 60% since 2021, even as domestic markets remain weak. The reason? China is now building for itself – replacing foreign components with domestic alternatives. 

“They are conquering their own supply chain. And what do you think happens when they're finished conquering their own supply chain? Next country, Europe. And they're already here, but we will see them to a much larger degree,” Aasholm said, also noting that European companies are entering China with their own set up.

“European companies are already placing some of their manufacturing in China in order to look Chinese so they can sell to the Chinese.”

He dismissed common perceptions of poor Chinese quality as outdated. “Tim Cook said it best: Apple is in China not for the price, but for the quality,” Aasholm said. 

“And European companies are already buying from them – because in many cases, they have no choice,” he said, highlighting that China is producing some  mature products that are now obsolete in the US and in Europe.

China is a lot stronger than when all of this started. They have more semiconductor manufacturing, they have better tools, and they're preparing for the long game.

Chips Act and the illusion of growth

Aasholm was sceptical of Western reshoring policies like the US Chips Act, arguing that subsidies have distorted investment incentives without meaningfully increasing capacity utilisation. “Factories are being built for free money, not for demand,” he said, pointing out that TSMC’s US fabs are underutilised even in peak market conditions.

Meanwhile, Chinese companies continue buying up Western semiconductor tools—even under embargo. “Wait until Christmas,” he said. “Those tools aren’t in production yet.”

The road ahead: Supercycle or super slump?

Despite booming CapEx from cloud giants and Nvidia’s dominance, Aasholm cautioned that the current trajectory may lead to a 2026 “supercycle”—but not the kind people expect. “It’s not going to be up. It’s going to be down,” he said.

His final takeaway? 

“This tide does not lift all boats. The cycle is broken. And it's been replaced by many cycles of which some are not cycles. They're just downhill to the bottom very, very fast.”

Thus, the semiconductor industry is, by the looks of it, fragmenting into micro-cycles, with some companies booming and others sinking. And unlike past cycles, some downturns may prove permanent.

Throughout the presentation Aasholm points out that brutal truth is better than happy data, because its when you understand what’s truly going on that you can formulate a strategy that sticks.

 Evertiq Expo will return to Malmö Arena on 21 May 2026 for its fifth edition.