Notebook industry growth outlook dims amid tariff uncertainty
The global notebook industry is bracing for continued volatility as trade tensions and economic headwinds cast a shadow over projected growth in 2025, according to new research released today by TrendForce.
Despite a temporary 90-day grace period granted by the US before implementing reciprocal tariffs, offering temporary relief for notebook brands, market conditions remain uncertain, prompting a downward revision in annual shipment growth forecasts.
As pointed out by TrendForce, brands began frontloading inventory in late 2024, pushing Q4 shipment growth to 5.1%, with the first quarter of 2025 seeing a 7.2% YoY increase.
However, TrendForce now projects global notebook brand shipments will rise just 1.4% in 2025, significantly below the earlier estimate of 3.6%. The revision comes as brands contend with lingering economic uncertainties and escalating tariff risks, particularly between the US and China.
Currently, the US imposes a 20% import duty on notebooks from China while maintaining a 0% tariff on imports from Southeast Asia. This disparity has driven a strategic pivot among brands toward countries such as Vietnam and Thailand. US-based notebook brands, which moved earlier to diversify supply chains, are now better equipped to manage inventory flows during the grace period. Conversely, non-US brands with less-developed operations in the region face logistical and production challenges.
TrendForce warns that if trade negotiations between the US and its partners fail, the industry may be forced to grapple with significant price increases and weaker demand in the latter half of the year. With the US accounting for roughly 30% of global notebook demand, any disruption in consumer or commercial purchasing cycles could have major implications.
The possibility of China imposing retaliatory tariffs on US key components remains a key concern. Higher production costs stemming from such measures could force brands to adopt more conservative procurement strategies, further dampening shipment volumes.
"If tariffs on imports from Southeast Asia are eventually capped at 10–20%, it could alleviate cost pressures and stabilise market sentiment. However, price hikes and weakened demand in the second half of 2025 may become unavoidable if talks break down and policy risks escalate—potentially dragging down annual notebook brand shipment growth down to -2.1%," TrendForce writes in the press release.