Electronics Production |
iSuppli trims 2010 semiconductor forecast
With consumer demand slowing and inventories rising, the market researcher iSuppli is trimming its 2010 semiconductor revenue forecast to 32%, down from its previous outlook of 35.1%.
Global semiconductor sales now are expected to amount to USD 302 billion in 2010, up from USD 228 billion in 2009. Despite the reduced outlook, 2010 still will be a year of impressive growth and record-setting revenue for the semiconductor industry. Revenue in 2010 will rise by about USD 74 billion compared to 2009 and be almost USD 28 billion higher than 2007, the previous last peak year for semiconductor revenue, according to iSuppli’s semiconductor industry analysis.
The market researcher now expects that revenue in the 4Q/2010 will decline by 0.3% compared to 3Q/2010, the first sequential decrease since the market collapse in the 4Q/2008 and 1Q/2009. Due to this 4Q-decline, global semiconductor revenue in the 2H/2010 will rise by 7.8% compared to the 1H/2010. This is down from 10.7% growth in the 1H/2010 compared to the 2H/2009.
While the industry outlook remains cloudy and revenue will contract in the 4Q/2010, iSuppli does not believe this signals the start of a significant downturn in the global semiconductor market. The market researcher forecasts an increase in global semiconductor revenue in 2011 of 5.1%. Sequential quarterly growth in 2011 is projected to follow a more normal seasonal pattern compared to 2010. For long-term growth, iSuppli expects to see an average annual growth of slightly more than 4% between 2010 and 2014.
