Electronics Production | November 23, 2009
Worldwide PC revenue to Decline 11% - despite increase in shipments
Accelerating mobile PC shipments will drive the worldwide PC market to grow again this year, according to Gartner's preliminary fourth-quarter forecast. The new forecast predicts worldwide PC shipments will total 298.9 million units in 2009, a 2.8% increase from 2008.
In 2010, PC shipments are projected to reach 336.6 million units, a 12.6% increase over 2009. This forecast is more optimistic than Gartner's final September forecast, which anticipated a 2% decline in shipments for 2009. "Shipments in the third quarter of 2009 were much stronger than we expected, and that alone virtually guaranteed we would see positive growth this year," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner. While PC shipments are now expected to increase in 2009, the market value of PC shipments is still projected to decline. The market value of global PC shipments is now forecast to total $217 billion in 2009, a 10.7% decline from 2008. Gartner is now projecting the market value of PC shipments to reach $222.9 billion in 2010, a 2.6% increase over 2009. "Blame this year's drop in market value on the unprecedented declines in PC average selling prices (ASPs) we've seen this year," Mr. Shiffler said. Gartner analysts reiterated their belief that Windows 7 will have a limited impact on holiday PC sales but noted that 2010 PC shipments could be affected. "We just don't see consumers buying new PCs solely because of Windows 7," said Mr. Shiffler. "We are expecting a modest bump in fourth-quarter consumer demand as vendors promote new Windows 7-based PCs, but the attraction will be the new PCs, not Windows 7." Gartner's new forecast indicates mobile PC shipments are on pace to reach 162 million units in 2009, a 15.4% increase over 2008. In 2010, mobile PC shipments are expected to reach 196.4 million units. Mini-notebook shipments, included in overall mobile PC shipments, are forecast to reach 29 million in 2009 and will grow to 41 million shipments in 2010. Meanwhile, shipments of desk-based PCs are expected to total 136.9 million units in 2009, a 9% decline from 2008. In 2010, desk-based PC shipments are forecast to reach 140.2 million units.