IC market to top USD 300<em>bn</em> in2013

In its recently released 2011 Mid-Year Update, IC Insights lowered its forecast for 2011 worldwide semiconductor industry growth from 10% to 5% and lowered its 2011 IC market forecast from 10% to 4%. Yet, despite the less bullish outlook, some positive news has emerged that provides a silver lining amidst all the dour news being reported, writes IC Insights. Among the highlights are the following items. - According to IC Insights' revised forecast, the IC market will surpass $300 billion for the first time in 2013. As a point of reference, the IC market first topped the $10-billion mark in 1980, first exceeded $100 billion in sales in 1995 and topped $200 billion for the first time in 2005 (Figure 1). As shown, it took 15 years for the IC market to grow from $10 billion to $100 billion, 10 years to double in size to $200 billion, and is forecast to take eight years to increase another $100 billion to reach the $300-billion plateau. - Total IC unit shipments are forecast to top the 200-billion mark for the first time in 2011. Shipments of analog devices are forecast to surpass 100 billion units in 2011--the first time any product segment has reached that level--and represent 50% of total IC unit shipments. - MOS memory devices are forecast to have the strongest market CAGR among the major product categories during the 2008-2015 timeperiod, with average annual growth of 12%. Over the same period, NAND flash memory is forecast to be among the strongest-growing individual product segments with 20% average annual growth. Rising demand for tablet PCs, smartphones, and solid-state drives will drive increasing sales of NAND flash through 2015. - Total smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 60% in 2011 to 440 million units, after increasing 56% to 275 million in 2010. Between 1Q10 and 4Q11, quarterly smartphone shipments are expected to rise by an average of 13% per quarter. This is significant because smartphones contain as much as 9x more NAND flash than a basic or enhanced cellphone. - Market momentum for automotive-related ICs continues with the Automotive Application-Specific Analog market forecast to grow 32% in 2011--highest among all IC products. Strong growth is also forecast this year for the Automotive Special Purpose Logic/MPR segment and in the market for 32-bit MCUs. Sophisticated safety systems, driver information systems, and engine control units will keep the automotive IC market active through 2015. - The steep takeoff of touch-screen tablets has turned the portable-computer segment upside down, with microprocessor giant Intel and rival Advanced Micro Devices scrambling to head off the overwhelming success of ARM-based processors in tablets. ARM processors were used in well over 90% of the 17 million tablets sold by all systems suppliers in 2010, and nearly that same share is expected in 2011. The spread of ARM-based processors threatens to go beyond tablet computers and invade the x86 MPU turf in mainstream home PCs, desktop systems, and even network servers.