NB shipment saw diming Q2 and faces struggling Q3

Leading brands’ new models carrying the quad-core Haswell CPU showed unideal shipments, and the old models were digested slowly, which were two main reasons for the weaker-than-expected Q2 shipment. HP’s Q2 NB shipment attained 7 million units, surging 10% QoQ, a rare two-digit growth supported significantly by the bidding project in India. Lenovo followed closely, holding a shipment of 6.1 million units that surged 0.3% QoQ. Acer and Asus saw Q2 shipments surge 0.2% and 1%, respectively, while Toshiba was the brand that had the deepest Q2 shipment decline, 12.6% QoQ. Based on WitsView’s observation, brands’ shipments have faced turbulences since June and are being revised down for Q3. As we enter the 2nd half of the year, new models using the duo-core Haswell are mostly ready for Q3, and if the old models carrying Ivy Bridge are not digested before the new model launches, the new model distribution and sales will be impacted. Generally speaking, Q3 sees the demands for the back-to-school period in the U.S. and Europe and the National Holidays in China, and Q4 sees the peak season demands for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Hence, NB shipment has to worry about not only the old models to be digested that delay new model sales but the overwhelming new tablet and smartphones showcases in the second half of the year, and all of these are internal and external risks for the segment. The Q3 growth is projected to be 7-9% due to the low basis period in Q2 and the contributions from the 2nd and 3rd –tier brands, while the Q3 growth is only 4-6% for the top nine brands.