© wrangler Analysis | June 10, 2016

19 New Fabs and Lines to Start Construction

19 new fabs and lines are forecasted to begin construction in 2016 and 2017, according to the latest update of the SEMI World Fab Forecast report.
While semiconductor fab equipment spending is off to a slow start in 2016, it is expected to gain momentum through the end of the year. For 2016, 1.5 percent growth over 2015 is expected while 13 percent growth is forecast in 2017.

Fab equipment spending ─ including new, secondary, and in-house ─ was down 2 percent in 2015. However, activity in the 3D NAND, 10nm Logic, and Foundry segments is expected to push equipment spending up to USD 36 billion in 2016, 1.5 percent over 2015, and to USD 40.7 billion in 2017, up 13 percent. Equipment will be purchased for existing fabs, lines that are being converted to leading-edge technology, as well as equipment going into new fabs and lines that began construction in the prior year.

© Semi

Table 1 shows the regions where new fabs and lines are expected to be built in 2016 and 2017. These projects have a probability of 60 percent or higher, according to SEMI’s data. While some projects are already underway, others may be subject to delays or pushed into the following year.

Breaking down the 19 projects by wafer size, 12 of the fabs and lines are for 300mm (12-inch), four for 200mm, and three LED fabs (150mm, 100mm, and 50mm). Not including LEDs, the potential installed capacity of all these fabs and lines is estimated at almost 210'000 wafer starts per month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning construction in 2016 and 330'000 wafer starts per month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning construction in 2017.

In addition, the transition to leading-edge technologies (as we can see in planar technologies, but also in 3D technologies) creates a reduction in installed capacity within an existing fab. To compensate for this reduction, more conversions of older fabs may take place, but also additional new fabs and lines may begin construction.


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