© franz pfluegl Analysis | March 17, 2015

IC growth for automotive, cellphones, IoT remains solid

11 IC product categories to exceed total IC market growth in 2015. IC growth for automotive, cellphones, IoT remains solid; Tablet MPU growth will stall.
Eleven product categories (led by Automotive Special Purpose Logic, DRAM, and Automotive Application-Specific Analog devices) are expected to exceed the 7% growth rate forecast for the total IC market this year, writes IC Insights. Five of the eleven categories are forecast to see double-digit growth in 2015. The total number of IC categories forecast to register sales growth in 2015 drops slightly to 27 products from 28 in 2014.

IC Insights forecasts a solid growth year for automotive-specific ICs. In addition to Automotive Special Purpose Logic and Automotive Application-Specific Analog, “intelligent” cars are contributing to growth in the 32-bit MCU market. Driver information systems, throttle control, and semi-autonomous driving features such as self-parking, advanced cruise control, and collision-avoidance are some of the systems that rely on 32-bit MCUs. In the next few years, complex 32-bit MCUs are expected to account for over 25% of the processing power in vehicles.

Automotive is forecast to be among the strongest electronic systems market in 2015. The automotive segment is expected to register a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% in the 2014-2019 timeperiod compared to projected CAGRs of 6.8% for communications, 4.3% for consumer, 4.2% for computer, 4.5% for industrial, and 2.7% for government/military. Despite automotive being one of the fastest growing electronic system markets over the next five years, automotive’s share of the total IC market is forecast to be only 8% in 2015 and remain less than 10% through 2019.

2015 forecast of IC Market Growth by product
product category20142015F
Automotive; Spcl Purpose Logic19%15%
Automotive; App-Specific Analog11%12%
Wireless Comm; App-Specific Analog15%12%
Cellphone App MPUs13%10%
32-bit MCU8%9%
Industrial/Other; App-Specific Analog8%9%
NAND Flash6%9%
Power Management Analog16%8%
Total IC Market8%7%
Computer & Peripherals; Spcl Purpose Logic8%5%
Consumer; Spcl Purpose Logic5%5%
Wired Comm; Spcl Purpose Logic5%5%
Industrial/Other; Spcl Purpose Logic10%5%
General Purpose Logic6%4%
Wireless; Spcl Purpose Logic4%4%
Signal Conversion5%4%
Tablet MPUs9%3%
16-bit MCU2%3%
Standard Cell3%3%
Std PC, Server, etc. MPUs*4%3%
4-/8-bit MCU2%2%
Computer; App-Specific Analog2%2%
Consumer; App-Specific Analog3%2%
Wired Comm; App-Specific Analog-30%2%
NOR Flash-13%-6%
Display Drivers-12%-7%
Gate Array-14%-12%

* includes embedded processors, but does not include graphics processors

Big gains in the DRAM average selling price (ASP) the past two years resulted in greater-than-30% growth for the DRAM market in both 2013 and 2014. DRAM ASP growth is expected to subside this year but demand for mobile DRAM is forecast to help this memory market category grow another 14%, placing it second among the 33 IC product categories shown, according to the newly refreshed forecast.

Growth of Cellphone Application MPUs (10%) is forecast to remain near the top on the growth list for a fifth consecutive year. Meanwhile, the previously high-flying Tablet MPU market is forecast to sputter to just 3% growth in 2015 as demand for tablets slows and ASPs decline. Other IC categories that support mobile systems are expected to see better-than-industry-average growth in 2015, including gains of 9% for NAND flash and 8% for Power Management Analog.

Increased sales of medical/personal health electronic systems and the growth of the Internet of Things will help the markets for Industrial/Other Application-Specific Analog and 32-bit MCU devices outpace total IC market growth in 2015, as well.


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